Why 7 Years? 

Why Pacific Northwest Farming Must Be Decentralized Within Seven Years
The Pacific Northwest faces converging crises that threaten our food security and economic stability. Decentralizing agricultural production isn't just an environmental ideal—it's an urgent economic and security imperative. Here's why we have a narrow window to act.

Supply Chain Fragility: Lessons from Recent Disruptions
The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the catastrophic vulnerability of our centralized food system, leaving communities dependent on fragile transportation networks thousands of miles away.

Critical System Failures:

Research shows trucking companies were forced to "pivot business models" as supply chains collapsed. Freight rates surged "upwards of 20%" for "17 straight months" while Tyson reported $270 million in additional annual freight costs. With 60,000-driver shortages, essential distribution crumbled—drivers couldn't access facilities or verify temperature-sensitive loads.

Manufacturing shutdowns eliminated entire regional food networks overnight. Single disruptions created shortages hundreds of miles away, forcing import volumes up 141-175% as communities faced empty shelves and 25% price spikes.

The Reality: When trucks stop, communities stop eating. Local hydroponic production eliminates this vulnerability entirely—ensuring food security regardless of transportation disruptions.

Climate Disruption: Accelerating Changes to Growing Conditions
Climate Change is rapidly altering Pacific Northwest growing conditions, making adaptation urgent rather than gradual.

Temperature and Precipitation Shifts:

• Average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest have increased 1.3°F since 1900, with acceleration in recent decades

• Summer precipitation has decreased 15% since 1950, while winter precipitation has increased

• The 2021 heat dome killed an estimated 1 billion marine animals and severely stressed agricultural systems
   

Extreme Weather Frequency:

• Heat domes, previously rare, are now projected to occur every 5-10 years rather than once per century

• Wildfire smoke events now occur annually, reducing crop yields and creating air quality hazards for farm workers

• Flooding events in western Washington and Oregon have increased 40% since 1980
   

Sources: NOAA climate data, University of Washington Climate Impacts Group reports, Oregon Climate Change Research Institute studies

Water Stress: Competing Demands on Limited Resources
Water availability is becoming increasingly constrained across the Pacific Northwest, creating urgent pressure to optimize agricultural water use through localized systems.

Current Water Challenges:

• The Columbia River system, which supplies irrigation for much of the region's large-scale agriculture, faces declining snowpack and earlier runoff

• Groundwater levels in eastern Washington have dropped 10-50 feet in major agricultural areas over the past two decades

• Urban growth in the Puget Sound region is increasing competition for water resources

Projected Shortfalls:

• Climate models project 20-40% decreases in summer water availability by 2050

• Current agricultural water rights are already over-allocated in many Pacific Northwest watersheds

• Drought conditions similar to 2015 and 2021 are expected to become normal by 2030
   

Sources: Washington State Department of Ecology water supply studies, Oregon Water Resources Department reports, peer-reviewed studies on Columbia River basin water availability

Regional Food Insecurity: Growing Vulnerability
Despite the region's agricultural potential, food insecurity is increasing, particularly affecting low-income communities and communities of color.

Current Food Access Challenges:

• Approximately 1 in 8 Pacific Northwest residents experience food insecurity

• Food costs have increased 15-20% faster than the national average in major Pacific Northwest cities since 2020

• Rural communities often face "food deserts" with limited access to fresh, affordable produce
   

Economic Vulnerability:

• The region's dependence on food imports makes it vulnerable to price volatility and supply disruptions

• Low-income households spend 25-35% of their income on food, making them particularly vulnerable to price shocks

• Indigenous communities face disproportionate food insecurity despite traditional food sovereignty practices

Socio-Political Instability: Preparing for Disruption
Rising political polarization, economic inequality, and social tensions create additional risks to centralized food systems that span multiple states and regions.

Political Risks:

• Interstate commerce disruptions during civil unrest or political conflicts could severely impact food flows

• Immigration policy changes could disrupt agricultural labor supplies that the region's large farms depend on

• Climate migration to the Pacific Northwest is projected to increase population by 200,000-400,000 by 2030, straining existing food systems
   

Economic Instability:

• Wealth inequality in Pacific Northwest cities has reached levels not seen since the 1920s

• Housing costs have displaced agricultural workers and small farmers

• Corporate consolidation has reduced the number of mid-scale farms that historically provided regional food security

Sources: Census migration data, Federal Reserve economic inequality reports, USDA farm consolidation statistics

The Seven-Year Window: Why Speed Matters
Multiple factors create urgency for rapid decentralization of Pacific Northwest agriculture:

1. Infrastructure Timing: Current federal infrastructure investments provide funding opportunities that may not be available after 2030

2. Climate Tipping Points: Regional climate models suggest crossing critical thresholds for agricultural viability in current systems by 2030-2032

3. Economic Cycles: The region's current economic strength provides capital and workforce availability that may diminish during future downturns

4. Policy Windows: Current political alignment around climate action and food security may shift after upcoming election cycles
    

The Path Forward
Decentralizing Pacific Northwest agriculture means:

• Developing local and regional food networks that can supply 40-50% of regional food needs

• Converting suburban and peri-urban land to productive agriculture

• Building processing and distribution infrastructure to support local food systems

• Training a new generation of farmers adapted to changing climate conditions

• Creating policy frameworks that support small and medium-scale agricultural enterprises

The convergence of climate change, supply chain vulnerability, water stress, and social instability creates both urgent risks and immediate opportunities. The Pacific Northwest has seven years to build resilient, decentralized food systems before these challenges become crises.